Mallorca hosts a relatively open draw, with many of the top 20 players not being in form. Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut all Not-hot. No-one in this tournament has a grass court win greater than 67%, which leaves space for a surprise champion.
If one was to pick a winner, it is hard to go with one of these three, as they are all inconsistent, but Agut seems the most consistent out of them all, especially after a SF Wimbledon appearance in 2019.
Other names that appear that are Ugo Humbert, Lloyd Harris, Karen Khachanov and Jan Lennard Struff.
The world no 31 is having a cracking week in Halle, playing the final vs Andrey Rublev. It is worrying to play this match tennis before your next tournament, so it is possible he could withdraw from Mallorca, considering Wimbledon is next week. It is merely impossible to say the 22yo could reach a final in Halle, then win in Mallorca and play Wimbledon the next day. This would be 15 matches in approximately 15 days, and just impossible.
The world no 51 is 3W/2L on grass this year, but losing to quality opponents in Felix Auger-Aliassime and Nikoloz Basilashvilli, both reaching a F and SF respectively. Harris has been playing some good tennis, but given this draw has no clear favourites, there is a good chance could grab his first title here!
The world no 27 has only had one grass match, losing to Andrey Rublev in the first round of Halle Open earlier this week. The bookies may overvalue his odds here because he does not seem in good form, but in recent years has a good grass win rate (60%), which is not amazing, but the same and better than the three favourites of this tournament.
The world no 45 beat Medvedev last week in Halle, and is not ruled out to have a good run. The only concern is how consistent Struff can be. Struff has Feli Lopez, Khachanov and Thiem in his quarter, so it will be a struggle to win the quarter initially. He definitely has the game to snatch the title, but it will be a test.