Novak Djokovic (1) v Denis Shapovalov (10)
The world no 1 leads the H2H 6-0 against the Canadian. In photos of shaking hands at the net, Djokovic seems to be nurturing Shapovalov like he is his child. Djokovic has the consistency to wipe the floor with Shapovalov, and has done so several times. Shapovalov has played well in the recent encounters, breaking Novak twice and taking a set off him. It does however seem unlikely that Denis can overcome a 5 set match to come out with a top performance against the world no 1.
Shapovalov also said in his press conference that he served best in the 5th set, providing a clutch way to win the match, and has the ability to win his SF match, which answered very nervously. When Shapo has taken a set off Djokovic, he has choked the next set/rest of the match. If he feels like he can back up and serve clutch against the best returner on tour (42% return points won), this, adding to his 10 double faults served, combined with the pressure of a first Semi-Final at prestigious Wimbledon, it does not look good for the 22yo. Djokovic is into his 10th Semi-Final at Wimbledon, winning the title 5 times.
Djokovic in 3
Matteo Berrettini (7) v Hubert Hurkacz
Hurkacz is an underdog that around 0.7% of people thought would make it this far. Berrettini on the other hand was given a 53% chance to reach the Semi's. These two players share H2H wins 1-1, and similar statistics. It comes down to who performs better on the day. Hurkacz is less consistent, and can turn off. Players who have recently had big wins tend to feel like they have achieved a great amount, and their mentality shifts to a more content level. Berrettini on the other hand was just getting business done in his QF match against Felix Auger-Aliassime. Berrettini should have the composure to close it out.
Berrettini to lose the first set, and win in 4